China’s Economy Beats Forecast but Faces Rising Global Risks

China’s economy grew 5.0% in Q1 2026, exceeding expectations, signalling short-term resilience despite global economic uncertainty.


Growth was supported by:

  • Strong export performance (+14.7% year-on-year)
  • Government stimulus and infrastructure spending
  • Stable industrial production

However, underlying risks are increasing:

  • Weak domestic consumption (retail growth only ~1.7%)
  • Rising production costs due to energy and logistics
  • Exposure to global oil shock and geopolitical tensions

Business Impact:

  • Export-driven companies continue to benefit
  • Manufacturing cost pressure increases due to energy prices
  • Businesses may delay expansion due to uncertainty

Global Economic Impact:

  • China remains key driver of global supply chain
  • Slower domestic demand may affect global trade
  • Risk of spillover to ASEAN economies including Malaysia

Macroeconomic Effect:

  • Governments may increase fiscal spending
  • Central bank expected to ease policies gradually
  • Growth outlook remains positive but fragile

Source: https://www.reuters